Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:58:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54e6…7ae6 crypto 719 markets active 5h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$54 (-3%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate60%428W / 291L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day77.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$20
14 days−$76
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -6.9% -15.8% 53% 48% -12.8%
≤30d 719 -9.3% -17.9% 60% 48% -13.2%
≤90d 719 -9.3% -17.9% 60% 48% -13.2%
all 719 -9.3% -17.9% 60% 48% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 48% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 27% -21.5%
15% -33.0% 15% -29.1%
20% -39.5% 12% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses428 / 291
Open positions0
Markets (closed)719 / 719
History coverage16d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day77.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 719 Trades
no open positions (127 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$13 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$2 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$8 +145%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$8 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $24 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $17 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $11 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $11 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1499 history records