Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54e7…66f7 crypto 884 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (294 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$183 (-3%) realized −$182 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%534W / 348L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day294.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$197
14 days−$190
30 days−$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$190
weather 0% −$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (294 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 831 -1.0% -10.4% 58% 50% -12.3%
≤30d 882 -0.8% -10.2% 61% 48% -12.1%
≤90d 882 -0.8% -10.2% 61% 48% -12.1%
all 882 -0.8% -10.2% 61% 48% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover294.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 48% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 41% -20.5%
15% -26.7% 36% -28.2%
20% -33.9% 27% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$182
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses534 / 348
Open positions2
Markets (closed)882 / 884
History coverage9d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day294.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 882 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 201 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$6 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$8 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$7 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$4 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $0 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.50 · official $5.50 (match) · 3378 history records