Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

54 0x54e8…ba5b other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$211 (+40%) realized +$211 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip

Net edge+14%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%14W / 7L

Drawdown29%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day16.2pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+23.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+36.1%	+23.1%	67%	67%	+32.3%
≤30d	21	+36.1%	+23.1%	67%	67%	+32.3%
≤90d	21	+36.1%	+23.1%	67%	67%	+32.3%
all	21	+36.1%	+23.1%	67%	67%	+32.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover16.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+23.1%	67%	+32.3%
10%	+11.4%	57%	+19.6%
15%	+0.6%	48%	+8.1%
20%	-9.3%	33%	-2.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +36% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +51% → late +23% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$19 vs −$12 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.09 per $1 lost it wins $3.09

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$211

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses14 / 7

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage2d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day16.2

Drawdown29%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$26	+$3	+11%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$32	+$16	+50%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$14	−$13	-94%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$53	+$14	+26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$150	+$15	+10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$11	−$10	-94%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$11	+$20	+186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$2	+46%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$21	+$8	+36%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$11	−$10	-96%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$21	−$21	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$16	+$8	+49%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$14	+$2	+17%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$21	+$42	+198%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$21	−$12	-56%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$21	+$6	+29%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$21	+$64	+299%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$21	+$40	+189%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$21	+$27	+127%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	92¢	$29	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$26	3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$36	4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$14	5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	27¢	$11	5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	26¢	$12	5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$21	6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	82¢	$66	7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$21	9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$32	9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	41¢	$11	10h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$11	10h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	26¢	$30	10h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$11	11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	91¢	$151	11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$105	12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$35	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$8	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$5	19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$21	24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$16	28h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	SELL Yes	11¢	$16	29h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$3	30h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	2¢	$0	30h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$11	30h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	7¢	$11	31h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$21	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$10	45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$10	45h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$63	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records