Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:58:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54e8…5e6b sports 782 markets active 1h ago coverage 670d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,995 (-5%) realized −$11,036 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate86%661W / 111L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$313est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2,113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$489
14 days−$444
30 days−$411
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$5,987
other 16% −$3,038
crypto 5% −$2,009
world 3% +$147
politics 0% −$397
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -25.9% -32.9% 64% 21% -31.2%
≤30d 22 -13.9% -22.1% 77% 23% -21.6%
≤90d 296 -5.0% -14.0% 85% 20% -16.1%
all 772 -3.8% -12.9% 86% 25% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 25% -14.6%
10% -21.3% 10% -22.8%
15% -28.9% 6% -30.3%
20% -35.9% 3% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$248 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

670d coverage
Net worth$2,113
Realized−$11,036
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses661 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$313
Open positions10
Markets (closed)772 / 782
History coverage670d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 772 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 74¢ $530 $488 −$42 (-8%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 77¢ $505 $462 −$43 (-9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $120 $345 +$225 (+188%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $315 $342 +$27 (+9%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 78¢ $168 $155 −$13 (-8%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 97¢ $86 $97 +$11 (+13%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $90 $65 −$25 (-28%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $120 $65 −$55 (-46%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $110 $55 −$55 (-50%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $28 $39 +$11 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $171 +$29 +17%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $59 +$41 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $165 −$165 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $291 +$58 +20%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $93 +$7 +7%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $370 +$30 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $194 −$193 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $172 −$172 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $97 +$3 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $95 +$5 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $94 +$6 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $130 +$29 +23%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $95 +$3 +3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $49 +$2 +3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $188 +$12 +6%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway May 31 $178 +$22 +12%
World Championships: Germany vs. Great Britain May 26 $94 +$6 +6%
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 25 $10 $0 +1%
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 25 $305 +$5 +2%
World Championships: Canada vs. Denmark May 20 $271 +$29 +11%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 18 $5 $0 +1%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 7.5 Total Corners May 18 $29 $0 +1%
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 18 $70 +$1 +1%
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 7.5 Total Corners May 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 18 $104 +$1 +1%
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 18 $394 +$6 +2%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 7.5 Total Corners May 17 $25 $0 +1%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 17 $118 +$1 +1%
World Championships: Italy vs. Slovakia May 17 $25 +$4 +16%
World Championships: Great Britain vs. USA May 17 $181 +$19 +10%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ozan Kabak: Anytime Goalscorer May 17 $84 +$1 +2%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 17 $100 +$1 +1%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 17 $104 +$1 +1%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Latvia May 17 $164 +$36 +22%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 11 $10 $0 +1%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 11 $10 $0 +1%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 11 $10 $0 +1%
Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 11 $74 +$1 +1%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 7.5 Total Corners May 11 $104 +$1 +1%
Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Paris FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 11 $104 +$1 +1%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 11 $104 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 0 - 0 Real Madrid CF? May 11 $193 +$7 +4%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 10 $109 +$1 +1%
Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 7.5 Total Corners May 10 $30 $0 +1%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $80 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $85 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $58 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $49 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $50 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $7 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $39 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $115 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $18 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $59 2h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? BUY No 93¢ $93 27h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 80¢ $57 3d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 80¢ $139 3d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 80¢ $4 3d
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 80¢ $160 5d
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 85¢ $71 5d
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 85¢ $28 5d
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 85¢ $28 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $60 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $65 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $69 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $13 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $67 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $92 5d
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 80¢ $80 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $87 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $10 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $95 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $42 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $52 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,113.47 · official $2,112.17 (match) · 3110 history records