Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:27:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54e8…f7bd world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$9 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate85%17W / 3L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% $0
crypto 27% +$1
politics 21% −$8
economics 9% $0
other 5% $0
finance 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 80% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 20 +0.2% -9.3% 85% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 20 +0.2% -9.3% 85% 0% -9.3%
all 20 +0.2% -9.3% 85% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.06 per $1 lost it wins $17.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses17 / 3
Open positions21
Markets (closed)20 / 41
History coverage22d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 84¢ $12 $20 +$8 (+68%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $12 $4 −$8 (-68%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+1%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 11 $3 $0 -0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $203 +$1 +0%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $108 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $6 $0 +1%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $23 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $7 33m
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $3 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 15h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $6 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 16h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 23h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 24h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 24h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 24h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 34h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 100¢ $1 42h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 3d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $1 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $1 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $5 3d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 3d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 4d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.77 · official $172.75 (match) · 287 history records