Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x54e9…bc72 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$190 (-7%) realized −$190 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$149
7 days+$149
14 days+$149
30 days+$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$153
world 14% −$106
other 7% −$135
economics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +49.8% +35.5% 100% 100% +23.7%
≤30d 9 +15.7% +4.7% 89% 78% +11.5%
≤90d 9 +15.7% +4.7% 89% 78% +11.5%
all 26 -22.8% -30.2% 50% 46% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 46% -12.3%
10% -36.9% 31% -20.7%
15% -43.0% 15% -28.4%
20% -48.6% 15% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$48 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$190
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage173d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $304 +$71 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 24 $206 +$106 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 24 $202 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 24 $102 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 24 $206 +$44 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 24 $411 +$54 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 24 $223 +$50 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Feb 18 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Feb 18 $117 +$23 +20%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March Feb 18 $20 −$16 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Feb 18 $80 −$23 -29%
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30? Feb 18 $80 −$23 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? Feb 18 $20 +$25 +125%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 18 $20 +$3 +15%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 18 $62 +$15 +24%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 17 $20 −$14 -69%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31? Jan 12 $40 +$36 +90%
Will Texas Tech win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jan 01 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Georgia win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jan 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Januar Dec 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Dec 30 $60 −$60 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Dec 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $294 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $18 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $102 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $209 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $132 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $250 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $294 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $170 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records