Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54ea…f74a sports 652 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,863 (-5%) realized −$13,024 · open +$161
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%328W / 319L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$436per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$3,014est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$642now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days+$1,687
14 days−$49,316
30 days−$36,668
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$10,218
other 7% −$5,034
world 0% +$5
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +27.9% +15.7% 68% 66% -1.8%
≤30d 257 -30.7% -37.3% 37% 34% -42.8%
≤90d 565 -2.2% -11.5% 51% 49% -14.6%
all 647 -3.5% -12.7% 51% 49% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 49% -14.4%
10% -21.0% 46% -22.6%
15% -28.7% 42% -30.1%
20% -35.7% 34% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$613) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$327 vs −$384 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$642
Realized−$13,024
Unrealized+$161
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses328 / 319
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$3,014
Open positions5
Markets (closed)647 / 652
History coverage111d
Avg bet$436
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 647 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 70¢ 80¢ $344 $393 +$49 (+14%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 21¢ 50¢ $55 $131 +$76 (+138%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 82¢ $70 $95 +$25 (+35%)
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 36¢ 67¢ $11 $21 +$10 (+86%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $1 $3 +$2 (+187%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $505 +$526 +104%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $11 +$18 +162%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 +$4 +55%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Cyber Hero vs HARD GRIND (BO3) - BetBoom Ris Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $73 +$545 +747%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,789 −$2,145 -77%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $1,441 +$710 +49%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $126 −$124 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $721 −$718 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,594 +$838 +32%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 +$1 +24%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $154 −$154 -100%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $299 +$210 +70%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $707 +$464 +66%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 +$8 +126%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $89 +$6 +7%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $536 +$320 +60%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $132 +$92 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $2,414 −$2,400 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 +$1 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$4 +89%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +121%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $94 +$59 +63%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $21 +$35 +168%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $125 +$44 +35%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $12 +$18 +159%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $63 +$46 +72%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $239 +$105 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $66 +$53 +79%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $765 +$209 +27%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$28 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $605 +$302 +50%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $681 +$598 +88%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,218 +$612 +50%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $438 +$448 +102%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,299 +$602 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$53 +52%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $646 +$312 +48%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $933 +$615 +66%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $25 +$13 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$11 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $56 40m
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 36¢ $11 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $6 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $2 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $247 18h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $8 18h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $6 18h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $13 18h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $85 19h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $47 19h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $3 19h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $20 19h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $7 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $642.42 · official $642.42 (match) · 2051 history records