Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x54ea…caa0
crypto · 598 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$57 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$28 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses365 / 232
Open positions1
Markets (closed)597 / 598
History coverage55d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 597 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$64
14 days+$55
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 1? No 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $4 +$72 +1739%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +55%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 04 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$39
other 1% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? SELL Yes 89¢ $76 16h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +38.5% +25.3% 57% 43% +107.8%
≤30d 98 +5.6% -4.5% 56% 34% +24.0%
≤90d 597 -5.6% -14.6% 61% 40% -6.7%
all 597 -5.6% -14.6% 61% 40% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 40% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 23% -15.6%
15% -30.2% 14% -23.7%
20% -37.1% 7% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.98 · official $1.98 (match) · 1724 history records