Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54eb…2529 world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%18W / 32L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$10
14 days+$2
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$21
sports 23% −$11
other 17% −$17
politics 12% +$3
economics 6% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 33 +0.3% -9.3% 36% 3% -9.3%
≤90d 45 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 2% -9.4%
all 50 -2.1% -11.4% 36% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 2% -9.5%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses18 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage105d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $176 $176 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $352 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $257 −$12 -5%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $371 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $155 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $714 +$2 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $117 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $175 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $145 −$2 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $243 +$14 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $165 −$6 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $120 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $184 −$3 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $74 +$10 +14%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $174 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $174 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $306 +$1 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $311 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $558 +$13 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $320 −$1 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $92 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $242 +$2 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $314 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $170 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $148 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $195 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $286 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $144 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $317 −$5 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $159 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $140 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $140 −$9 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $14 −$1 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $21 $0 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $619 −$2 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,136 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $906 +$2 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $906 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $905 +$1 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $971 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $96 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $1,077 −$4 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $97 −$5 -5%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $468 −$7 -1%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $1,024 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $176 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $161 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $161 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $161 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $161 19h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $38 38h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 39h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $177 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $177 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $14 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $177 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $177 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $24 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $25 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $36 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $96 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $52 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $33 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $70 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $155 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $154 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $130 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $171 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $55 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.36 · official $176.36 (match) · 250 history records