Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:25:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54ec…0d0b crypto 623 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1039 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,431 (+12%) realized +$5,410 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%322W / 719L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day1039.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,421
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1039 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1041 -38.2% -44.1% 31% 27% -17.2%
≤30d 1041 -38.2% -44.1% 31% 27% -17.2%
≤90d 1041 -38.2% -44.1% 31% 27% -17.2%
all 1041 -38.2% -44.1% 31% 27% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1039.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.1% 27% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -49.5% 23% -25.1%
15% -54.4% 19% -32.3%
20% -58.8% 15% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -85% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$25 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$299
Realized+$5,410
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses322 / 719
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1041 / 623
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1039.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1041 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 74¢ 84¢ $166 $188 +$21 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $0 +$1 +567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 25 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $57 −$57 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $166 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $101 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $7 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $19 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $8 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $82 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $153 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $0 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $198 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $209 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $75 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.77 · official $228.47 · 3500 history records