Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:35:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
54 0x54ed…1d79 crypto 155 markets active 4h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$31 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%64W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$105
14 days−$105
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$119
other 19% −$69
sports 18% −$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 -11.9% -20.3% 42% 39% -12.5%
≤30d 150 -11.9% -20.3% 42% 39% -12.5%
≤90d 150 -11.9% -20.3% 42% 39% -12.5%
all 151 -11.7% -20.1% 42% 40% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 40% -12.3%
10% -27.8% 38% -20.7%
15% -34.7% 36% -28.3%
20% -41.1% 34% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$16 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses64 / 87
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 155
History coverage246d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $36 −$17 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +119%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $104 +$129 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$46 +90%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $20 +$43 +211%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $20 +$16 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 25¢ $16 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $20 4h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $233 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $83 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $41 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $102 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 16¢ $10 12h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $10 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 38¢ $10 15h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $154 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $193 22h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $193 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $81 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.93 · official $145.93 (match) · 370 history records