Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:37:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x54ef…24a2 crypto 19 markets active 1d ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$119 (-2%) realized −$119 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%6W / 13L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$4
world 20% −$1
tech 20% $0
politics 12% −$1
economics 10% +$2
sports 2% −$147
crypto 1% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 19 +5.2% -4.8% 32% 26% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 26% -11.3%
10% -13.9% 26% -19.8%
15% -22.2% 26% -27.5%
20% -29.9% 26% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$712) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +22% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage125d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 22 $7 $0 -0%
Canadiens vs. Senators: O/U 6.5 Mar 12 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026? Mar 10 $1,242 −$1 -0%
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 10 $1,247 $0 -0%
Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 10 $1,313 −$2 -0%
Netanyahu arrested by March 31? Mar 10 $768 −$2 -0%
Will Liberal Alliance win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in th Mar 10 $712 −$1 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Mar 09 $610 +$2 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 11PM ET Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 28, 5AM ET Mar 01 $8 +$8 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 28, 6PM ET Mar 01 $11 +$11 +100%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 11PM ET Feb 27 $14 +$14 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 10AM ET Feb 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 5PM ET Feb 27 $12 +$12 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 12AM ET Feb 25 $12 +$12 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 3PM ET Feb 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $7 30h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $7 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $6 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $6 18d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $7 35d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $7 35d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $7 54d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $7 54d
Canadiens vs. Senators: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 52¢ $147 95d
Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $596 96d
Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $597 96d
Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $645 96d
Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $645 96d
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $617 96d
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $617 96d
Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 97¢ $729 96d
Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $730 96d
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $630 96d
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $631 96d
Netanyahu arrested by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $130 96d
Netanyahu arrested by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $635 96d
Netanyahu arrested by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $768 96d
Will Liberal Alliance win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in th SELL No 100¢ $14 96d
Will Liberal Alliance win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in th SELL No 100¢ $697 96d
Will Liberal Alliance win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in th BUY No 100¢ $712 96d
Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 98¢ $582 98d
Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $584 98d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 SELL No 99¢ $612 98d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 BUY No 99¢ $30 98d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 BUY No 99¢ $580 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records