Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:55:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
54 0x54f0…7725 crypto 195 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,525 (-19%) realized −$5,525 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%96W / 99L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$247
7 days−$5,780
14 days−$5,780
30 days−$5,665
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$5,434
sports 18% −$215
crypto 14% −$416
world 2% +$363
politics 1% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -28.1% -34.9% 53% 29% -34.4%
≤30d 19 -21.2% -28.7% 53% 32% -32.5%
≤90d 195 -9.1% -17.7% 49% 45% -26.8%
all 195 -9.1% -17.7% 49% 45% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 45% -26.8%
10% -25.6% 40% -33.8%
15% -32.8% 35% -40.2%
20% -39.4% 29% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$97 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,525
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses96 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)195 / 195
History coverage71d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 195 Trades
no open positions (76 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,006 +$54 +2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$16 +16%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,006 +$225 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,009 +$214 +21%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $159 −$139 -87%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,124 +$715 +34%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3,005 +$151 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 +$21 +52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $272 +$98 +36%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6,016 −$6,000 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,002 +$62 +6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $102 −$3 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $51 −$34 -66%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $1,104 −$46 -4%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $203 +$161 +79%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $302 +$31 +10%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $702 +$363 +52%
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $102 −$12 -12%
Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $10 −$4 -37%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $10 +$8 +80%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $101 +$53 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $200 +$78 +39%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $202 −$200 -99%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $507 +$382 +75%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $61 +$44 +73%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $101 +$84 +83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $145 +$165 +114%
Getafe CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $40 −$39 -98%
Getafe CF vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Apr 25 $200 −$197 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary electio Apr 15 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $100 +$21 +21%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 13 $5 +$6 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 13 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 13 $22 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 13 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 13 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 95¢ $3,060 38m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 71¢ $117 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $3,006 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $3,006 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,007 27h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $1,223 36h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 37h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes $20 39h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $159 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $2,839 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,015 40h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $3,156 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 52¢ $62 45h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $3,005 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $41 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $272 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,002 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 46¢ $98 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,009 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 5d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $17 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5,013 7d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Mirra Andreeva 96¢ $1,049 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 91¢ $1,003 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 467 history records