Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:27:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
54 0x54f0…8a13 other 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 394d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$169 (-3%) realized −$154 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate28%45W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$82
14 days−$82
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% +$37
other 25% −$729
world 19% +$607
crypto 9% −$183
economics 8% +$21
finance 7% −$148
culture 2% +$233
tech 1% −$28
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -69.7% -72.5% 0% 0% -65.0%
≤30d 8 -84.8% -86.3% 0% 0% -74.8%
≤90d 33 -14.6% -22.7% 15% 12% +10.3%
all 161 -11.5% -19.9% 28% 20% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 20% -12.0%
10% -27.6% 17% -20.4%
15% -34.6% 16% -28.1%
20% -41.0% 14% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$17 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

394d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$154
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses45 / 116
Open positions9
Markets (closed)161 / 170
History coverage394d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Yes $5 $24 +$19 (+375%)
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Yes 15¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-43%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No $15 $5 −$10 (-68%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? Jun 18 $40 −$3 -9%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 17 $50 −$35 -70%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $13 −$12 -95%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $21 −$20 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 14 $100 +$52 +52%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $30 +$448 +1493%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Sharjah announces secession from UAE by May 8? May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $26 +$1 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $25 +$102 +406%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 15 $12 −$12 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 14 $22 −$22 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $26 +$29 +113%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $32 −$32 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 27 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? Mar 24 $5 −$2 -42%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31? Mar 24 $2 $0 -26%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Mar 13 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 08 $87 +$33 +38%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 08 $20 +$105 +524%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31? Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 01 $4 −$3 -80%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $15 −$12 -78%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Feb 28 $344 −$124 -36%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in February? Feb 28 $3 −$2 -74%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Mark Carney in February? Feb 28 $1 $0 -43%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 28 $5 −$4 -89%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 28 $5 +$18 +366%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $4 1h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $4 1h
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $37 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 9h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 10h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 10h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 10h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL Yes $15 10h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $10 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $30 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No $5 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No $10 8d
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 18d
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $40 18d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 26d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $50 26d
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY No $10 29d
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY No 19¢ $10 29d
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY No 22¢ $10 29d
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 29d
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY No $2 29d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? BUY Yes $5 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 33d
Will Putin visit China by May 31? BUY No $10 33d
Will Putin visit China by May 31? BUY No $10 33d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? BUY Yes $5 36d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? BUY Yes $10 36d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $478 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.16 · official $94.16 (match) · 370 history records