Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
54 0x54f2…d0e3 sports 340 markets active 0h ago coverage 409d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,246 (+1%) realized +$1,188 · open +$58
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%129W / 198L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$228est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$418now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,200
7 days+$1,555
14 days+$1,555
30 days−$606
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$2,516
other 20% −$2
crypto 3% −$1,538
politics 1% +$33
world 0% +$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +10.7% +0.2% 52% 52% +9.6%
≤30d 59 -4.4% -13.5% 46% 46% -13.4%
≤90d 59 -4.4% -13.5% 46% 46% -13.4%
all 327 -6.5% -15.4% 39% 37% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 37% -8.2%
10% -23.5% 35% -17.0%
15% -30.9% 32% -25.0%
20% -37.7% 28% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$136 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

409d coverage
Net worth$418
Realized+$1,188
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses129 / 198
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$228
Open positions8
Markets (closed)327 / 340
History coverage409d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 327 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Quito: Angel Veliz vs Daniel Nunez Daniel Nunez 61¢ 72¢ $325 $385 +$60 (+18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $23 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Quito: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Dmitry Popko Jun 29 $490 −$287 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Jun 29 $821 −$35 -4%
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar Jun 29 $262 +$198 +76%
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 29 $85 −$3 -4%
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 29 $150 +$119 +79%
Wimbledon WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 29 $9 +$6 +62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $41 −$4 -10%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 29 $151 +$67 +45%
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics Jun 28 $158 +$93 +59%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $1,662 +$929 +56%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $98 +$96 +99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 28 $890 +$432 +49%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $101 +$46 +46%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 28 $297 −$293 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $160 −$159 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $145 +$115 +79%
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Lucio Ratti vs Filip Jeff Planinsek Jun 28 $101 +$86 +85%
T20 Blast: Kent vs Hampshire Jun 28 $81 −$80 -99%
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 28 $21 −$20 -97%
ITF Brussels: Dylan Dietrich vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 28 $376 +$227 +60%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $271 −$268 -99%
ITF Monastir: Mathys Picard vs Roger Pascual Ferra Jun 28 $49 −$48 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $19 −$5 -24%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $24 +$17 +73%
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp Jun 27 $100 +$49 +49%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland Jun 27 $40 +$57 +142%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $61 +$60 +99%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal Jun 27 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27 Jun 27 $19 −$3 -15%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins AND New York Yankees vs. Boston R Jun 27 $15 −$3 -20%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets AND Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Jun 27 $12 +$35 +291%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $221 −$9 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Jun 27 $18 −$3 -16%
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig Jun 27 $145 +$71 +49%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Jun 27 $191 +$40 +21%
ITF Monastir: Alyssa Reguer vs Karla Bartel Jun 27 $47 +$23 +50%
Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ goals Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $160 +$91 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,448 −$1,485 -61%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $506 −$231 -46%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $469 −$465 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $517 −$311 -60%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $1,094 +$346 +32%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $403 +$121 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Quito: Angel Veliz vs Daniel Nunez BUY Daniel Nunez 61¢ $329 23m
Quito: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Dmitry Popko BUY Dmitry Popko 53¢ $187 58m
Quito: Angel Veliz vs Daniel Nunez SELL Daniel Nunez 37¢ $187 58m
Quito: Angel Veliz vs Daniel Nunez BUY Daniel Nunez 54¢ $283 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance SELL Netherlands 59¢ $309 1h
Quito: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Dmitry Popko BUY Dmitry Popko 51¢ $104 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance SELL Netherlands 59¢ $103 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 60¢ $430 1h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals AND Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals AND Will Germany win BUY 15¢ $32 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar SELL Solana Sierra 100¢ $461 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar BUY Solana Sierra 55¢ $181 2h
Quito: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Dmitry Popko SELL Juan Pablo Varillas 62¢ $183 2h
Quito: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Dmitry Popko BUY Juan Pablo Varillas 66¢ $199 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar BUY Solana Sierra 59¢ $81 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Jesper de Jong 33¢ $81 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Jesper de Jong 33¢ $51 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Jesper de Jong 33¢ $34 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia SELL Nicolas Mejia 100¢ $268 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 55¢ $150 3h
Wimbledon WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 61¢ $9 3h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance SELL Netherlands 59¢ $159 3h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 31¢ $72 6h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance SELL Netherlands 60¢ $31 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 41¢ $37 6h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 61¢ $201 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $41 22h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 22h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics SELL Washington Mystics 99¢ $252 22h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 62¢ $139 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $417.54 · official $445.68 · 1146 history records