Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54f7…cd43 other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,493 (+1%) realized +$1,493 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$1,618per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1,105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$10
14 days−$29
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$55
politics 40% −$116
culture 4% −$11
sports 2% +$1,635
economics 2% −$4
tech 2% −$7
world 1% −$3
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 +5.2% -4.8% 11% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 120 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 7% -8.9%
all 126 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 6% -8.9%
10% -18.3% 6% -17.6%
15% -26.2% 5% -25.6%
20% -33.4% 5% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,689) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$4 · ×34.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.95 per $1 lost it wins $3.95
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$1,105
Realized+$1,493
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)126 / 128
History coverage94d
Avg bet$1,618
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $681 $681 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $424 $424 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $544 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,007 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $1,748 −$2 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $1,416 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,439 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,938 −$4 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $1,207 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,615 −$4 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,327 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,150 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1,747 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $1,663 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $2,680 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,319 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,272 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,592 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,588 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,649 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,171 −$5 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $4,284 −$5 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $76 +$73 +97%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,685 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,676 −$3 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $60 +$56 +93%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,179 −$5 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $593 +$2 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,119 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $2,394 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $1,077 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $3,767 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,231 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $3,017 −$4 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $3,022 −$5 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $4,632 −$7 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $1,654 −$2 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $74 +$59 +79%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $2,877 −$4 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,662 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,354 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $26 −$26 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 21 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,263 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,419 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $1,398 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $1,547 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $681 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $535 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $536 3h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $543 3h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $544 8h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $563 25h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $564 26h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $863 27h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $864 30h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $702 2d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $703 2d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $289 4d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $289 5d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,414 6d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,416 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,160 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,162 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,291 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,293 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,206 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,207 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,067 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,068 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,325 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,327 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,148 10d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,150 10d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $424 11d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $655 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $656 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,104.76 · official $1,104.76 (match) · 399 history records