Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54f8…58e0 crypto 1627 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$522 (-6%) realized −$521 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate12%245W / 1850L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day43.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2095 -22.9% -30.2% 12% 3% -15.5%
≤30d 2095 -22.9% -30.2% 12% 3% -15.5%
≤90d 2095 -22.9% -30.2% 12% 3% -15.5%
all 2095 -22.9% -30.2% 12% 3% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.2% 3% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -36.9% 0% -23.6%
15% -43.0% 0% -31.0%
20% -48.6% 0% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$521
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses245 / 1850
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2095 / 1627
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day43.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2095 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 50¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Down 50¢ 58¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 50¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Down 50¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $0 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.00 · official $8.00 (match) · 3500 history records