Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:00:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x54f8…1f57
crypto · 200 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$767 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,150 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,150
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses81 / 119
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)200 / 200
History coverage173d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 0 History 200 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$701
7 days−$701
14 days−$701
30 days−$701
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Seahawks vs. 49ers 49ers 22¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Seahawks (-2.5) 49ers 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Israel strikes Iran before 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Bulls Bulls 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Texans vs. Patriots Texans 20¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $213 −$205 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $228 −$25 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $128 −$25 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$42 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $48 +$217 +457%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$169 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$53 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$84 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$112 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$11 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $207 +$95 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $114 +$21 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $155 +$54 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $114 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$81 +308%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $15 −$1 -5%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $5 −$1 -10%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $18 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $31 −$3 -10%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $46 −$4 -9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$42 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$100 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 54% +$291
crypto 42% −$1,270
sports 2% −$157
other 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $223 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $122 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $265 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $273 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -21.1% -28.6% 29% 25% -32.2%
≤30d 51 -21.1% -28.6% 29% 25% -32.2%
≤90d 73 -22.9% -30.2% 33% 30% -29.6%
all 200 -25.9% -33.0% 40% 30% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 30% -16.2%
10% -39.4% 24% -24.3%
15% -45.3% 20% -31.6%
20% -50.6% 14% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 571 history records