Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:41:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
54 0x54f9…b45e other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate55%26W / 21L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$2
other 31% +$2
politics 6% +$1
economics 3% +$1
crypto 3% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.1% -13.3% 33% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 42% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 42% 0% -9.8%
all 47 +2.2% -7.5% 55% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 6% -9.4%
10% -16.4% 4% -18.1%
15% -24.4% 4% -26.0%
20% -31.8% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses26 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage448d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $110 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $14 −$2 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $80 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $134 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $37 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $37 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $38 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $37 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Jul 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 10 $7 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 10 $26 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 10 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jul 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11? Jul 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $9 $0 +5%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -40%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 24 $4 +$1 +19%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +56%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $5 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will BTC close above $98K on May 16? May 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Po May 15 $1 +$1 +51%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? Apr 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $14 $0 -0%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Mar 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $39 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $36 12h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $36 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 21h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $37 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $37 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $40 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $1 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $41 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $0 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $0 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $0 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $15 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $32 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $37 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records