Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54f9…cbcb other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate49%22W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$1
other 23% −$11
politics 10% +$1
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% +$1
sports 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 15 +0.1% -9.5% 27% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 +0.1% -9.5% 27% 0% -9.6%
all 45 -2.0% -11.3% 49% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -10.8%
10% -19.8% 0% -19.4%
15% -27.6% 0% -27.2%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses22 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage447d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $32 $0 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $76 −$2 -3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $38 +$2 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $43 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $91 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $47 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 15 $4 −$1 -32%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Oct 23 $7 $0 +3%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 20 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $11 $0 +2%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 14 $3 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $1 $0 +9%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump by Monday? Jun 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in May? Jun 08 $12 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $11 $0 +4%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 18 $11 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 16 $11 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $47 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $47 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 45h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 45h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 46h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $6 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $13 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $16 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $47 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $47 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $18 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 60¢ $23 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 67¢ $26 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $16 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $29 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $36 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $9 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $40 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $15 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $23 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $5 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $5 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 26¢ $19 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records