Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:06:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x54fb…e7f3
sports · 12 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$54 +17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$65 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$16
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 4 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$65
14 days+$65
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Under $21 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Haiti $1 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score No 25¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $52 +$6 +11%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 +$4 +9%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $49 +$3 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $61 +$24 +39%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $35 −$10 -29%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $33 +$38 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$55
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Under $5 5m
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Under $5 6m
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Under $5 8m
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Under $4 10m
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Under $2 10m
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti $1 14m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 94¢ $58 15m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 84¢ $52 25m
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 26m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 95¢ $54 30m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $50 48m
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $2 51m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 94¢ $52 52m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $49 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $35 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 64¢ $36 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $26 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 86¢ $11 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $10 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 26¢ $5 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 25¢ $5 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $23 5h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 11¢ $7 6h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 10¢ $7 6h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $25 8h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $25 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.5% -10.9% 75% 38% +12.5%
≤30d 8 -1.5% -10.9% 75% 38% +12.5%
≤90d 8 -1.5% -10.9% 75% 38% +12.5%
all 8 -1.5% -10.9% 75% 38% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 38% +12.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 25% +1.8%
15% -27.2% 25% -8.1%
20% -34.3% 12% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.74 · official $15.74 (match) · 29 history records