Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:39:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
54 0x54fd…c606 sports 120 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,045 (+6%) realized +$1,109 · open −$64
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%59W / 58L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$219est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days−$377
14 days−$630
30 days−$1,983
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,092
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +19.4% +8.0% 46% 46% -20.6%
≤30d 61 -7.9% -16.7% 39% 39% -26.6%
≤90d 114 +13.3% +2.5% 49% 47% -3.7%
all 117 +15.3% +4.3% 50% 48% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 48% -2.7%
10% -5.7% 45% -12.0%
15% -14.8% 44% -20.5%
20% -23.1% 39% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +37% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$118 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$1,109
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses59 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$219
Open positions3
Markets (closed)117 / 120
History coverage97d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 34¢ 32¢ $83 $77 −$6 (-7%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $5 $17 +$12 (+237%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 34¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $256 +$203 +79%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $46 +$52 +114%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $98 +$103 +105%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $86 −$85 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 15 $178 +$294 +165%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $273 −$269 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $44 +$26 +61%
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $732 +$78 +11%
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $28 +$23 +80%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $78 +$55 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $22 +$125 +566%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$8 -27%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 13 $214 −$66 -31%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $601 −$601 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $35 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $15 +$29 +188%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 −$5 -34%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $20 +$17 +83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $14 −$9 -64%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $10 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $107 +$78 +73%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $44 +$56 +127%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$25 +83%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $101 −$11 -11%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 09 $16 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $28 +$31 +109%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 09 $50 +$50 +100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $46 +$54 +117%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Verdant (+1.5) Jun 09 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $35 −$34 -98%
LoL: CITA Kaizen vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $252 +$64 +26%
LoL: CITA Kaizen vs Bubliki (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $4 +$2 +45%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $394 −$386 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 06 $86 −$85 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $279 −$275 -99%
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs NIP (+1.5) May 30 $374 −$374 -100%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs May 29 $852 +$387 +45%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki - Game 4 Winner May 29 $944 −$944 -100%
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) May 29 $246 −$246 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $72 −$71 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $1,011 +$825 +82%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) May 27 $392 −$392 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 34¢ $85 25m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 34¢ $71 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL 9z 100¢ $460 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 55¢ $256 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $46 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $201 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $98 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $202 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 47¢ $86 3d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $472 3d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $178 3d
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $273 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 82¢ $70 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 50¢ $44 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $20 4d
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? SELL Yes 100¢ $811 4d
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? SELL Yes 46¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $133 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $78 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $147 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 15¢ $22 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) SELL Vitality 39¢ $22 5d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY Vitality 51¢ $30 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $35 5d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $44 6d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 61¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.83 · official $108.47 · 321 history records