Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:29:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
54 0x54fe…8636 sports 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 643d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$57 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate59%70W / 48L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$473per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$3,155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$47
world 1% +$10
sports 1% −$51
crypto 1% +$6
other 1% $0
culture 0% +$2
finance 0% +$1
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -5.8% -14.7% 50% 50% -10.5%
≤30d 16 -18.3% -26.0% 38% 31% -9.7%
≤90d 29 -5.6% -14.6% 48% 45% -9.7%
all 118 -5.3% -14.3% 59% 32% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 32% -9.7%
10% -22.5% 30% -18.3%
15% -30.0% 27% -26.2%
20% -36.9% 24% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

643d coverage
Net worth$3,155
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses70 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)118 / 122
History coverage643d
Avg bet$473
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,592 $1,591 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $800 $799 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 84¢ 84¢ $756 $755 −$0 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 45¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $252 −$3 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 18 $12 +$5 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev Jun 18 $15 +$5 +34%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Alina Korneeva May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Elise Mertens May 29 $14 +$10 +72%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Camila Osorio May 29 $12 +$13 +105%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5 May 29 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $8,213 −$7 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $5,343 −$7 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $2,906 −$1 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 28 $61 $0 +0%
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 Apr 08 $6 +$5 +91%
Celtics vs. Hawks Apr 08 $9 +$7 +77%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5 Apr 08 $14 +$3 +19%
Bulls vs. Spurs: O/U 245.5 Apr 08 $10 +$10 +98%
Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $15 +$8 +56%
Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5 Apr 08 $15 +$11 +72%
Blue Jackets vs. Panthers Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Penguins vs. Golden Knights Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina Mar 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Kigali 2: Marco Trungelliti vs Max Houkes Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Lille OSC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-03-12? Mar 30 $10 +$6 +64%
Sharks vs. Bruins Mar 30 $10 +$15 +151%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 12 $95 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Avalanche Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Rangers vs. Bruins Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Flames vs. Penguins Feb 23 $5 +$6 +127%
Stars vs. Sharks Feb 23 $5 +$7 +133%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 23 $25 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Jets Jan 10 $5 +$6 +113%
Capitals vs. Blackhawks Jan 10 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-01-09? Jan 10 $20 +$30 +150%
Devils vs. Penguins Jan 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves Jan 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Mavericks vs. Jazz Jan 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Pacers vs. Hornets Jan 09 $29 −$29 -100%
Ducks vs. Hurricanes Jan 09 $6 +$3 +52%
Sabres vs. Rangers Jan 09 $8 +$7 +85%
Miami vs. Ole Miss Jan 09 $10 +$6 +64%
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? Jan 08 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jan 08 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $8 32m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $244 35m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 84¢ $44 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $10 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 76¢ $252 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 84¢ $805 1h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $1,601 1h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $800 1h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY KT Wiz 69¢ $12 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 74¢ $15 20d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $11 20d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5,166 20d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $254 20d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $2,249 20d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $8 20d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $48 20d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $12 20d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 20d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $55 20d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $52 20d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $51 20d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $57 20d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 20d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $30 20d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $15 20d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $9 20d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $56 20d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $61 20d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $12 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,155.44 · official $3,155.44 (match) · 322 history records