Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
54 0x54ff…749e other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$107 (-0%) realized −$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$34
politics 24% −$9
sports 15% −$63
crypto 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 85 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 128 -4.3% -13.5% 10% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 5% -9.8%
10% -21.7% 4% -18.5%
15% -29.3% 2% -26.3%
20% -36.2% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×3.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage132d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $213 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $211 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 25 $214 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $180 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $207 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $227 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $180 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $204 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $230 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $247 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 15 $236 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $192 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $474 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $224 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $414 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $565 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $253 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $248 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $403 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $259 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $237 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $195 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $244 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $260 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $262 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $257 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $257 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $218 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $733 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 12 $197 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $204 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $196 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 10 $210 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $525 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $190 $0 -0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $215 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 07 $469 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $245 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $195 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $37 12h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 20h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 24h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 5d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 6d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $28 8d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $28 9d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 9d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $213 15d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $145 15d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $33 15d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $25 15d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $211 23d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $211 24d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $178 24d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $178 24d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $214 25d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $214 26d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $180 26d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $180 28d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $207 28d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $207 30d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $227 30d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $227 30d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $180 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 380 history records