Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5500…da1b sports 233 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$871 (-14%) realized −$848 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%82W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$71
14 days−$6
30 days−$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$491
other 31% −$675
finance 9% +$11
world 3% +$71
politics 3% +$112
crypto 2% +$51
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +20.0% +8.6% 40% 40% +24.9%
≤30d 93 -15.0% -23.1% 29% 28% -23.5%
≤90d 140 -15.4% -23.5% 33% 31% -27.2%
all 224 -14.0% -22.2% 37% 31% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 31% -23.8%
10% -29.6% 28% -31.1%
15% -36.4% 23% -37.7%
20% -42.7% 18% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$848
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses82 / 142
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions9
Markets (closed)224 / 233
History coverage123d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $24 $18 −$6 (-27%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-42%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+32%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+49%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Marta Kostyuk be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Elena Rybakina 31¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Eala vs Rybakina Jun 18 $2 +$1 +50%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 +$2 +15%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $9 +$34 +365%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $53 +$72 +137%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -21%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $20 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 +$11 +116%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $10 −$1 -9%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $10 +$4 +35%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $78 +$44 +57%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $9 −$3 -27%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $4 −$3 -73%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 10 $59 +$16 +28%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $61 −$2 -4%
Modena: Victoria Bosio vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $60 +$11 +19%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 08 $9 −$9 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $92 −$1 -1%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $7 +$3 +39%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $6 −$5 -89%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $7 −$5 -70%
Will Kosovo vs. Andorra end in a draw? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Makarska: Darja Semenistaja vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 07 $7 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $14 −$8 -54%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Draw at halftime? Jun 07 $54 −$43 -80%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $147 −$22 -15%
Libema Open, Qualification: Ella Seidel vs Greet Minnen Jun 07 $20 −$19 -94%
Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $123 −$5 -4%
Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $33 −$33 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $21 +$12 +57%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $85 +$37 +44%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $13 −$5 -41%
Foggia: Lucia Bronzetti vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 06 $4 $0 -11%
Portugal vs. Chile: Draw at halftime? Jun 06 $10 +$7 +72%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Ōsaka win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $28 −$23 -83%
Will Júbilo Iwata win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $41 +$35 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 31¢ $8 40m
Set 1 Winner: Eala vs Rybakina SELL Rybakina 33¢ $3 53m
Set 1 Winner: Eala vs Rybakina BUY Rybakina 21¢ $2 58m
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Alexandra Eala 14¢ $7 1h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 18¢ $9 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys $1 6h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 24¢ $10 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 44h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 45h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 46h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa SELL Allura Zamarripa 58¢ $43 46h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 12¢ $9 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 31¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down $1 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down $1 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 30¢ $7 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $44 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 40¢ $9 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.59 · official $64.59 (match) · 578 history records