Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:28:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
55 0x5500…b4f6 weather 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$370 (+10%) realized +$370 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate76%70W / 22L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day43.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$139
14 days+$190
30 days+$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$191
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +27.2% +15.1% 78% 62% -5.1%
≤30d 92 +23.9% +12.1% 76% 59% -4.1%
≤90d 92 +23.9% +12.1% 76% 59% -4.1%
all 92 +23.9% +12.1% 76% 59% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.1% 59% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here +1.4% 43% -13.2%
15% -8.4% 29% -21.6%
20% -17.4% 20% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$370
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses70 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage11d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day43.6
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 28? Yes 51¢ 55¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+7%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 27? Yes 60¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 28? Jun 26 $197 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 28? Jun 26 $11 +$5 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28? Jun 26 $15 +$8 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 28? Jun 26 $0 $0 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 27? Jun 26 $55 −$16 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 27? Jun 26 $380 −$14 -4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 26 $52 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 27? Jun 26 $49 +$9 +19%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 26 $39 −$14 -34%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 26 $86 +$29 +34%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 26 $45 +$13 +28%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 26? Jun 26 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 26? Jun 25 $149 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 27? Jun 25 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 25 $48 −$4 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 27? Jun 25 $136 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 27? Jun 25 $141 −$20 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27? Jun 25 $80 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 27? Jun 25 $10 +$6 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26? Jun 25 $62 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 26? Jun 25 $80 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 25 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 25 $139 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 24 $7 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 24 $19 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 26? Jun 24 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 26? Jun 24 $46 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 24 $508 +$26 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 24 $3 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 25? Jun 24 $0 +$1 +198%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 23 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? Jun 23 $3 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 25? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 23 $12 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 23 $15 +$6 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 23 $1 +$2 +280%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 23? Jun 22 $0 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 24? Jun 22 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? Jun 22 $12 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 24? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? Jun 22 $10 +$13 +128%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 22 $30 −$5 -16%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 22 $7 +$3 +43%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 22 $16 +$9 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 22 $17 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $40 −$10 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 22? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 23? Jun 21 $24 +$8 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 28? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 28? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 28? SELL Yes 55¢ $357 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 51¢ $378 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 28? SELL Yes 36¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 28? SELL Yes 41¢ $148 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 28? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 28? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 28? BUY Yes 34¢ $155 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 28? BUY Yes 36¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 28? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 28? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 28? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 28? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 28? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 28? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 28? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 28? SELL Yes 44¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 28? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 28? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 27? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 27? SELL No 70¢ $62 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.12 · official $19.12 (match) · 496 history records