Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:43:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5501…fe9a sports 362 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,959 (-15%) realized −$7,412 · open −$547
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%136W / 223L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$683est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,379
7 days+$1,059
14 days+$980
30 days−$20,943
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$9,708
crypto 5% +$310
other 2% +$11
world 0% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +20.0% +8.6% 58% 56% +5.9%
≤30d 249 -57.8% -61.8% 20% 19% -63.2%
≤90d 348 -14.0% -22.2% 36% 36% -31.7%
all 359 -10.9% -19.4% 38% 38% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 38% -25.1%
10% -27.1% 37% -32.3%
15% -34.1% 36% -38.8%
20% -40.6% 33% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +22% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$133 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$7,412
Unrealized−$547
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses136 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$683
Open positions3
Markets (closed)359 / 362
History coverage108d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Gentle Mates 27¢ 36¢ $82 $108 +$27 (+33%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner EDward Gaming 59¢ 0¢ $359 $0 −$358 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 42¢ 0¢ $216 $0 −$215 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $103 +$40 +38%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $48 +$66 +138%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $86 +$116 +134%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $667 −$660 -99%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $190 −$187 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $122 −$120 -99%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $597 +$224 +38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $266 +$331 +125%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $337 +$433 +128%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $182 +$138 +76%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $549 +$424 +77%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $142 +$172 +121%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $65 +$117 +180%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $306 +$244 +80%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $71 −$69 -98%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 19 $48 −$47 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$18 +70%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $22 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $95 −$91 -96%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $269 −$266 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $74 +$99 +133%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $152 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $372 +$307 +82%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $198 +$269 +136%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $69 −$67 -97%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $94 −$93 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$38 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$26 +89%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $60 +$41 +68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $39 +$61 +156%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $67 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $29 +$38 +130%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $68 −$66 -98%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $62 −$61 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $36 +$27 +74%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $203 −$167 -82%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $98 +$105 +106%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $59 +$38 +65%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $13 +$47 +360%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $59 −$58 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $146 −$143 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $19 −$18 -96%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $6 +$14 +246%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $49 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 27¢ $83 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $143 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 40m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 99¢ $114 44m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 41¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $219 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $202 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 59¢ $363 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 42¢ $86 2h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 1WIN 66¢ $667 4h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 36¢ $190 5h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $122 14h
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $821 15h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 72¢ $597 17h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $597 17h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $95 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $171 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $770 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $337 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $320 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $182 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $182 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $65 26h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $964 27h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $549 28h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $550 28h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $306 29h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $306 29h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $142 29h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Sashi Esport 33¢ $71 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.68 · official $108.68 (match) · 851 history records