Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:05:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
55 0x5502…d440 sports 576 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 151d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,996 (+3%) realized +$8,863 · open −$867
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate64%357W / 204L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$535per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$808est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2,556now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$309
7 days−$2,223
14 days−$2,375
30 days+$2,108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$6,430
culture 7% −$1,271
other 6% +$909
politics 2% +$32
world 1% +$256
crypto 1% +$67
tech 0% +$29
finance 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +12.1% +1.4% 53% 47% -16.9%
≤30d 136 +10.3% -0.2% 59% 49% -7.2%
≤90d 284 +9.2% -1.2% 68% 38% -7.8%
all 561 +5.4% -4.7% 64% 43% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 43% -7.3%
10% -13.8% 37% -16.2%
15% ← realistic here -22.1% 32% -24.3%
20% -29.7% 26% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$131 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$2,556
Realized+$8,863
Unrealized−$867
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses357 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$808
Open positions12
Markets (closed)561 / 576
History coverage151d ⚠
Avg bet$535
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 561 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 94¢ $552 $563 +$11 (+2%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 80¢ $370 $402 +$32 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $204 $356 +$152 (+75%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 98¢ $258 $295 +$37 (+14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $200 $238 +$38 (+19%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 74¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $200 $169 −$31 (-16%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $153 $148 −$4 (-3%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 28¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-5%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 14¢ $189 $43 −$145 (-77%)
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner TEAM VISION 88¢ 0¢ $953 $1 −$952 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? Jun 25 $203 −$55 -27%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $350 +$149 +43%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $80 +$170 +212%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $172 −$172 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 25 $167 −$146 -88%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $183 −$183 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $189 −$189 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $180 +$270 +150%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $102 +$103 +101%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $182 +$68 +38%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $200 −$145 -73%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $441 +$559 +127%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $100 −$50 -50%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 24 $124 −$124 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $50 −$37 -74%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $128 +$227 +177%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $98 +$152 +156%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $85 −$85 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $210 +$40 +19%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $40 −$2 -5%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $33 −$33 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $156 −$156 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $98 +$102 +104%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $14 +$86 +614%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $29 +$71 +245%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $150 +$150 +100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $219 +$81 +37%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $180 −$178 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $147 −$73 -50%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $893 −$696 -78%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $940 −$927 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $300 +$5 +2%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $200 +$300 +150%
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $260 +$40 +15%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $405 +$241 +60%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $1,517 +$307 +20%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $470 −$470 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $520 −$450 -86%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $5,149 +$24 +0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 21 $400 −$400 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $7,920 +$80 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $228 +$172 +75%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $1,522 +$227 +15%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $261 +$39 +15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $110 +$90 +82%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $122 +$78 +64%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $108 −$108 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $480 −$480 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $720 −$720 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? SELL No 28¢ $9 30m
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? SELL No 28¢ $2 30m
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? SELL No 28¢ $9 30m
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? SELL No 28¢ $9 31m
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? SELL No 28¢ $8 31m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $60 34m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $153 34m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $85 51m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $499 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 88¢ $70 2h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 93¢ $459 2h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 93¢ $238 2h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 74¢ $185 2h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 75¢ $201 2h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 70¢ $350 4h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 37¢ $2 4h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 37¢ $11 4h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 37¢ $17 4h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 37¢ $4 4h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 37¢ $4 4h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 37¢ $56 4h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 32¢ $80 5h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 32¢ $80 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $183 20h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $189 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $78 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 22h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $203 22h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 49¢ $102 25h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 5¢ $17 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,556.32 · official $2,556.34 (match) · 3500 history records