Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:33:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
55 0x5503…4ec2 sports 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$33 (+9%) realized +$34 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$33
14 days−$33
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$21
other 22% −$27
politics 4% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -29.8% -36.5% 41% 41% -19.8%
≤30d 27 -29.8% -36.5% 41% 41% -19.8%
≤90d 28 -14.3% -22.5% 43% 43% +0.2%
all 32 -20.2% -27.8% 41% 41% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 41% -4.4%
10% -34.7% 28% -13.5%
15% -41.0% 28% -21.9%
20% -46.8% 22% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)32 / 37
History coverage118d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 63¢ 72¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 37¢ 30¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$11 +57%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$6 +20%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $15 −$5 -33%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$10 +96%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Corners Jun 14 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -61%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $10 −$3 -30%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +139%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$6 +111%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 02 $16 +$66 +402%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff Feb 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 20 $5 +$3 +56%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Play Feb 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $10 23m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 39m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $10 40m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $20 13h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $10 37h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 37h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 37h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $12 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $11 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 12¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 73¢ $21 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 34¢ $10 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $10 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Corners BUY Over 82¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL BetBoom Team 11¢ $7 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 15¢ $10 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.16 · official $39.16 (match) · 59 history records