Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:41:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5503…2a7d sports 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$49 (+4%) realized +$44 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%14W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$89
14 days+$129
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$127
other 35% −$11
crypto 9% −$106
economics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -64.7% -68.1% 14% 14% -61.4%
≤30d 53 -31.5% -38.0% 26% 26% -10.1%
≤90d 53 -31.5% -38.0% 26% 26% -10.1%
all 53 -31.5% -38.0% 26% 26% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 26% -10.1%
10% -44.0% 26% -18.7%
15% -49.4% 26% -26.5%
20% -54.3% 26% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -72% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$16 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses14 / 39
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions5
Markets (closed)53 / 58
History coverage32d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 48¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $11 +$15 +139%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 +$25 +155%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $24 +$56 +231%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $32 +$78 +244%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $16 +$24 +149%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $48 +$164 +345%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $16 +$34 +214%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 05 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Guam win on 2026-06-03? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Philippines vs. Guam end in a draw? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Albania vs. Israel end in a draw? Jun 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Wales vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 05 $11 +$16 +149%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $21 +$25 +120%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 05 $26 +$43 +162%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $53 +$29 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 28? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 31 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 28? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 31 $27 −$27 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 31 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 29? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $53 +$52 +98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $59 +$32 +54%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $53 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $53 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $16 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 27¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 21¢ $16 6d
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 7d
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $21 7d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $11 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $21 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 7d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 12¢ $21 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $26 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 34¢ $21 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $53 12d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $26 12d
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 30¢ $16 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 43¢ $21 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.02 · official $170.02 (match) · 140 history records