Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5505…aa44 sports 230 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3366 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$796 (-2%) realized −$2,049 · open +$1,253
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate14%18W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day3366.0pace
Fees−$617est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$41,359now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$643
other 19% −$91
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3366 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -37.1% -43.1% 14% 13% -79.4%
≤30d 126 -37.1% -43.1% 14% 13% -79.4%
≤90d 126 -37.1% -43.1% 14% 13% -79.4%
all 126 -37.1% -43.1% 14% 13% -79.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3366.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.1% 13% -79.4%
10% ← realistic here -48.5% 13% -81.4%
15% -53.5% 13% -83.2%
20% -58.1% 13% -84.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -93% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$67 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$41,359
Realized−$2,049
Unrealized+$1,253
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses18 / 108
Est. fees paid−$617
Open positions188
Markets (closed)126 / 230
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$177
Trades / day3366.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 188 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 35¢ 100¢ $567 $1,631 +$1,064 (+188%)
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Daniel Altmaier 16¢ 44¢ $472 $1,275 +$803 (+170%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $975 $1,002 +$27 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 30¢ 30¢ $983 $999 +$16 (+2%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 30¢ $965 $985 +$20 (+2%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $990 $979 −$11 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $974 $963 −$12 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Haiti 48¢ 48¢ $973 $959 −$14 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 40¢ $969 $957 −$12 (-1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 36¢ 36¢ $964 $954 −$11 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $971 $949 −$22 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $950 $933 −$17 (-2%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 44¢ $961 $929 −$31 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 44¢ 42¢ $957 $903 −$54 (-6%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Yes 40¢ 40¢ $858 $867 +$9 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 86¢ $419 $820 +$400 (+95%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 42¢ 42¢ $820 $811 −$10 (-1%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 32¢ 32¢ $768 $766 −$2 (-0%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 26¢ 22¢ $880 $763 −$117 (-13%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Vitality 44¢ 44¢ $736 $730 −$6 (-1%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner EDward Gaming 29¢ 100¢ $210 $720 +$510 (+243%)
Spread: United States (-2.5) United States 16¢ 16¢ $718 $696 −$22 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 31¢ 30¢ $715 $691 −$24 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Arthur Fery 42¢ 52¢ $537 $669 +$132 (+25%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score No 48¢ 48¢ $630 $636 +$7 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $99 +$124 +125%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $37 +$1 +2%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 19 $96 −$96 -100%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $96 −$96 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $67 −$67 -100%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 19 $96 −$96 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 19 $82 −$82 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $99 −$99 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $93 −$93 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 19 $99 −$99 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $81 −$81 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 19 $94 −$94 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 19 $96 −$96 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $95 −$95 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $95 −$95 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $99 −$99 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $96 −$96 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $5 0m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 0m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 36¢ $2 1m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $2 1m
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 42¢ $2 1m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $1 1m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 1m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $51 1m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 1m
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 40¢ $52 1m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 19¢ $1 1m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $51 2m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 48¢ $31 2m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 2m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 2m
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $27 2m
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Vitality 44¢ $12 2m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $12 2m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $26 3m
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $31 3m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 36¢ $35 3m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 30¢ $52 3m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $2 3m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 3m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 3m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 34¢ $23 4m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 4m
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $52 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41,358.75 · official $41,364.40 (match) · 3500 history records