Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:39:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

55
0x5507…e0e0
other · 50 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$15 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$14 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$11
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses21 / 27
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage74d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 2 History 48 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 41¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 22¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Thunder Lakers $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 78¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Timberwolves 23¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 54¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
76ers vs. Celtics Celtics 40¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Timberwolves 21¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Timberwolves 24¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? Yes 47¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? Yes 46¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Pistons 65¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $8 −$8 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 04 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $7 −$7 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $5 +$6 +114%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $4 $0 +7%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $10 +$4 +41%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $5 −$5 -97%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $10 +$5 +46%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $5 +$15 +291%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 3 - 1 Nottingham Forest FC? May 04 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $9 +$13 +145%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers May 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $5 +$11 +206%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $6 +$17 +276%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $3 +$9 +291%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $10 +$23 +226%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-04-05? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Japan win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $5 +$26 +525%
76ers vs. Heat Mar 31 $1 $0 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 52% +$22
sports 43% +$7
world 3% −$10
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 22h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $8 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 54¢ $7 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $5 12d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 65¢ $5 29d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 21¢ $5 30d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves SELL Timberwolves 100¢ $11 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 46¢ $5 32d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 32d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 93¢ $4 32d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 33d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 34d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 24¢ $5 34d
Knicks vs. 76ers SELL Knicks 100¢ $14 34d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 70¢ $10 34d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers $5 35d
76ers vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 100¢ $15 36d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 23¢ $5 36d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 68¢ $10 36d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 36d
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 3 - 1 Nottingham Forest FC? SELL Yes $0 38d
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 3 - 1 Nottingham Forest FC? BUY Yes $1 38d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 39d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 39d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 40¢ $9 40d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 40¢ $10 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +103.2% +83.8% 100% 100% +70.1%
≤30d 6 +5.8% -4.3% 50% 50% -26.8%
≤90d 48 +11.7% +1.1% 44% 42% -5.3%
all 48 +11.7% +1.1% 44% 42% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 42% -5.3%
10% -8.6% 42% -14.4%
15% -17.4% 42% -22.7%
20% -25.5% 31% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.60 · official $10.60 (match) · 97 history records