Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:39:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5508…068c other 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$43 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$16
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$14
other 29% −$24
sports 22% −$5
crypto 6% −$6
world 4% −$4
finance 4% −$3
culture 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.7% -10.1% 10% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 61 -0.9% -10.3% 10% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 114 -0.6% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 128 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$43
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 113
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage99d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $170 −$1 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $272 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $228 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $112 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $55 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Vinícius Jr. win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $57 −$1 -3%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $109 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $45 −$1 -2%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $52 −$2 -4%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $76 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $46 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $117 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $10 $0 -2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $105 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $183 −$1 -0%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $55 −$3 -5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $286 +$2 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $117 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 03 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 02 $65 −$2 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $54 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $52 $0 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $195 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $225 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $112 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $588 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $53 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $138 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 23 $122 −$3 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $236 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $56 11m
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $60 53m
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $60 9h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $29 9h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 14h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $62 15h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $62 19h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $58 19h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $59 24h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $61 25h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $61 33h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $1 34h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1 41h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $43 41h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $43 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $52 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $53 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $39 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $39 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $45 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $45 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 92¢ $36 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $36 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $67 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $67 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $15 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $11 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $5 4d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $57 4d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $57 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.46 · official $55.46 (match) · 497 history records