Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
55 0x550b…fdff crypto 8 markets active 2d ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$106 (-8%) realized −$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$247
7 days−$247
14 days−$247
30 days−$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$212
sports 18% +$28
crypto 6% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -47.2% -52.2% 0% 0% -30.6%
≤30d 8 -11.6% -20.0% 38% 38% -25.4%
≤90d 8 -11.6% -20.0% 38% 38% -25.4%
all 8 -11.6% -20.0% 38% 38% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 38% -25.4%
10% -27.6% 38% -32.5%
15% -34.6% 38% -39.0%
20% -41.0% 38% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$75 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage14d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $634 −$128 -20%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $391 −$84 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Jun 17 $101 −$99 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $57 +$80 +141%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $90 +$48 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$10 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $507 37h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $307 37h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $179 43h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $634 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $35 45h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $212 45h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 SELL Under 1¢ $2 11d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $136 11d
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 11d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $138 11d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $22 11d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $42 11d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $35 11d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $48 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $29 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $19 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records