Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:15:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x550f…a18d other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$158 (-18%) realized −$168 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$677now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$169
sports 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-46.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -41.2% -46.8% 25% 25% -90.0%
≤30d 4 -41.2% -46.8% 25% 25% -90.0%
≤90d 4 -41.2% -46.8% 25% 25% -90.0%
all 4 -41.2% -46.8% 25% 25% -90.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.8% 25% -90.0%
10% -51.9% 25% -90.9%
15% -56.6% 25% -91.8%
20% -60.8% 0% -92.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -89% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$60 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$677
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $300 $320 +$20 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $279 $276 −$3 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $175 −$173 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $49 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Sco BUY 12¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $286 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $307 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 3d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $159 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $677.09 · official $677.09 (match) · 17 history records