Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:15:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5510…5cc7 crypto 477 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-2%) realized −$41 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%210W / 253L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day50.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$18
14 days−$38
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$147
world 9% +$13
other 3% +$8
politics 3% +$12
sports 1% +$6
finance 1% −$8
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 235 -6.6% -15.5% 51% 48% -12.4%
≤30d 463 -15.8% -23.8% 45% 43% -19.3%
≤90d 463 -15.8% -23.8% 45% 43% -19.3%
all 463 -15.8% -23.8% 45% 43% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.8% 43% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.1% 38% -27.0%
15% -37.7% 31% -34.1%
20% -43.9% 24% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses210 / 253
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)463 / 477
History coverage20d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day50.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 463 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 9¢ 23¢ $6 $15 +$9 (+156%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $22 $13 −$9 (-40%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? Yes 16¢ 21¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $2 $12 +$10 (+418%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 21¢ 35¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+69%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 27¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 172 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $2 +$5 +243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$9 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$8 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $19 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $13 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $19 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 10h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.28 · official $79.04 · 1055 history records