Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:52:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5511…1c23 sports 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101 (-4%) realized −$102 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%30W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$356now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days−$43
14 days−$7
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$59
sports 46% −$204
world 2% −$15
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -4.6% -13.7% 49% 49% -12.1%
≤30d 67 -13.0% -21.3% 45% 45% -16.6%
≤90d 67 -13.0% -21.3% 45% 45% -16.6%
all 67 -13.0% -21.3% 45% 45% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 45% -16.6%
10% -28.8% 45% -24.6%
15% -35.7% 39% -31.9%
20% -42.0% 27% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$21 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$356
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses30 / 37
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions14
Markets (closed)67 / 90
History coverage22d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $50 $52 +$1 (+3%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners Over 59¢ 58¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 6.5 Corners Under 61¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$32 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $41 +$28 +70%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$30 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$24 +79%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$28 +93%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $88 +$62 +71%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$13 -24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$19 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$19 +75%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $29 +$10 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$20 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $61 +$57 +93%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $71 +$34 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $93 −$53 -57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$4 -8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$6 +32%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 +$14 +137%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecua Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$1 -6%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $19 −$1 -5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $95 −$94 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $41 −$2 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$34 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +40%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 +$4 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 04 $4 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 17¢ $20 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06 BUY 49¢ $30 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $20 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 61¢ $20 1h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $30 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $30 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $41 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $50 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 36h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $37 44h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $39 44h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 47h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 16¢ $51 47h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 47h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 47h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $46 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $355.98 · official $405.98 · 148 history records