Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5513…2e2b sports 300 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,792 (-20%) realized −$1,172 · open −$511
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%109W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2,019now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$674
7 days−$669
14 days−$671
30 days−$967
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$1,131
sports 39% −$490
crypto 4% −$69
world 2% +$33
politics 1% −$21
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -34.2% -40.5% 28% 28% -51.0%
≤30d 96 -16.0% -24.0% 38% 35% -29.9%
≤90d 297 -11.0% -19.5% 37% 30% -27.1%
all 297 -11.0% -19.5% 37% 30% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 30% -27.1%
10% -27.2% 27% -34.0%
15% -34.2% 24% -40.4%
20% -40.7% 19% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$17 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$2,019
Realized−$1,172
Unrealized−$511
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses109 / 188
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions3
Markets (closed)297 / 300
History coverage80d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,352 $1,823 −$529 (-22%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 74¢ $82 $118 +$36 (+44%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $96 $77 −$18 (-19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 38¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 +$92 +234%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $220 −$220 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $59 +$30 +50%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $167 −$167 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $197 −$197 -100%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $99 −$23 -23%
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $99 −$20 -20%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $148 +$36 +24%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $98 +$43 +44%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 08 $49 +$41 +83%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $45 +$133 +294%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $10 +$6 +66%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $20 +$7 +36%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $11 +$11 +101%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Chandogs vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $9 $0 -4%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 31 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $59 −$59 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $20 +$8 +42%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challen May 29 $10 +$36 +369%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $44 −$44 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $16 +$11 +67%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $21 +$13 +60%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $24 +$17 +67%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $31 +$20 +66%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $83 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $131 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $39 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $49 15h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 66¢ $59 25h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $59 25h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $59 25h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $186 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $220 26h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $217 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $167 29h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $76 29h
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $79 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $197 40h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $148 2d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $98 4d
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $99 5d
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $99 5d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $99 5d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,661 5d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $296 5d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 44¢ $36 5d
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $39 6d
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 31¢ $30 6d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 54¢ $49 7d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 12¢ $20 7d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 30¢ $30 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,018.58 · official $2,018.58 (match) · 777 history records