Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:32:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5514…698e other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 26L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$6
world 35% −$1
politics 11% $0
economics 7% $0
sports 4% +$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.4% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 13 +0.3% -9.2% 31% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 13 +0.3% -9.2% 31% 0% -9.4%
all 43 +2.4% -7.4% 40% 2% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 2% -8.7%
10% -16.3% 2% -17.4%
15% -24.3% 2% -25.4%
20% -31.8% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.97 per $1 lost it wins $2.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage465d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $47 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $22 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $32 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $43 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 14 $2 $0 -15%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $17 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 09 $34 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 08 $15 $0 -2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Primoz Roglic win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 27 $8 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 24 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? May 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 22 $7 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $12 $0 +1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 29 $13 $0 +4%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $13 $0 +3%
Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $43 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $9 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $33 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $2 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $27 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $15 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $4 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $4 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $18 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $18 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $11 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $46 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $47 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.54 · official $42.52 (match) · 122 history records