Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
55 0x5514…10df other 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 1051d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,286 (+6%) realized +$3,264 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate88%49W / 7L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$934per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$943now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$925
7 days+$925
14 days+$925
30 days+$925
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$1,470
politics 27% +$1,068
world 15% +$516
economics 4% +$264
culture 3% +$200
tech 3% −$231
sports 1% +$40
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +45.0% +31.2% 100% 100% +25.7%
≤30d 2 +45.0% +31.2% 100% 100% +25.7%
≤90d 2 +45.0% +31.2% 100% 100% +25.7%
all 56 +4.4% -5.5% 88% 29% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 29% -4.0%
10% -14.6% 9% -13.2%
15% -22.8% 4% -21.6%
20% -30.4% 2% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$1,397) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$240 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.96 per $1 lost it wins $2.96
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1051d coverage
Net worth$943
Realized+$3,264
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses49 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage1051d
Avg bet$934
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $701 $701 +$0 (+0%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 68¢ $112 $135 +$23 (+21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $108 $107 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $197 +$103 +52%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2,178 +$822 +38%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? Jan 26 $950 +$50 +5%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? Jan 02 $140 +$6 +4%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Jan 02 $289 +$11 +4%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in 2025? Jan 02 $320 +$19 +6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 02 $972 +$28 +3%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 02 $890 +$110 +12%
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 02 $990 +$110 +11%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 02 $1,800 +$200 +11%
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 16 $1,044 +$156 +15%
Trump out as President in 2025? Nov 19 $1,023 +$56 +6%
Maduro out in 2025? Oct 31 $234 −$12 -5%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 24 $29 +$1 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $2,036 +$264 +13%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by August 31? Sep 10 $460 +$40 +9%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jun 25 $720 +$40 +6%
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy by May 31? Jun 24 $1,485 +$112 +8%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 19 $14 −$2 -16%
Will Elon Musk buy MSNBC? Apr 17 $1,546 +$252 +16%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Mar 11 $1,460 +$104 +7%
DeepSeek banned in US before April? Feb 02 $200 −$2 -1%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 21 $1,014 +$286 +28%
Elon Musk arrested in 2024? Jan 03 $282 +$18 +6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? Jan 03 $965 +$35 +4%
GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? Dec 07 $1,473 +$24 +2%
House control after 2024 election? Nov 06 $1,420 $0 -0%
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election? Nov 05 $490 +$10 +2%
Harris-Walz Democratic ticket on election day? Nov 05 $557 +$43 +8%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 03 $1,005 +$180 +18%
Biden resigns from presidency by August 31? Oct 14 $483 +$17 +4%
Iran military response by Sunday? Aug 16 $954 +$46 +5%
[Single Market] Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the U.S. 2024 Republican pres Aug 16 $2,152 +$42 +2%
Will Portugal win the 2024 Euros? Jul 12 $1,350 +$150 +11%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June? Jul 01 $380 +$20 +5%
Ayatollah Khamenei still in power in Iran by June 30? Jul 01 $455 +$45 +10%
$DJT market cap greater than $5b on April 30? May 01 $1,277 −$1,277 -100%
$DJT market cap between $4b and $5b on April 30? May 01 $1,820 +$2 +0%
SBF reduced sentence because autism? Apr 23 $1,195 +$151 +13%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,397 +$74 +5%
Israel military action against Iran by April 15? Apr 16 $4,016 +$289 +7%
Iran response to Israel by Friday? Apr 13 $577 +$50 +9%
Iran response to Israel by Friday? Apr 07 $1,444 +$89 +6%
[Single Market] Will Nikki Haley win the U.S. 2024 Republican presiden Apr 02 $897 +$102 +11%
Will Putin be reelected? Mar 24 $386 +$14 +4%
Will Trump appear on Colorado primary ballot? Mar 07 $300 +$26 +9%
Will Trump be Speaker by Mar 1? Mar 02 $1,342 +$46 +4%
Will Google announce 1000+ new layoffs before February? Feb 02 $400 −$341 -85%
Will another plane's cabin door blow off in January? Feb 02 $485 +$15 +3%
Will Trudeau announce resignation by EoY? Jan 02 $32 +$8 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $706 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $111 7h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,119 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $197 4d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,059 21d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $57 21d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $57 21d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? BUY Yes 95¢ $28 152d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? BUY Yes 95¢ $3 152d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? BUY Yes 95¢ $38 152d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? BUY Yes 95¢ $0 152d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? BUY Yes 95¢ $380 152d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? BUY Yes 95¢ $38 152d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? BUY Yes 95¢ $0 152d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? BUY Yes 95¢ $463 152d
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY No 87¢ $1,044 217d
Trump out as President in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $1,079 217d
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $289 223d
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $320 223d
Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $140 223d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $972 224d
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? BUY No 90¢ $990 225d
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 90¢ $900 229d
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 90¢ $900 229d
Maduro out in 2025? SELL No 73¢ $127 236d
Maduro out in 2025? SELL No 75¢ $94 236d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 78¢ $234 243d
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? SELL Yes $0 243d
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? SELL Yes $30 243d
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? BUY Yes $29 244d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $942.72 · official $939.72 (match) · 220 history records