Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
55 0x5519…f7e1 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$85 (+11%) realized +$90 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$73
other 34% +$90
crypto 3% −$26
world 3% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +15.7% +4.7% 50% 50% +4.6%
≤30d 28 +15.7% +4.7% 50% 50% +4.6%
≤90d 28 +15.7% +4.7% 50% 50% +4.6%
all 28 +15.7% +4.7% 50% 50% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.7% 50% +4.6%
10% -5.3% 50% -5.4%
15% -14.5% 46% -14.6%
20% -22.8% 43% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$20 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$90
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage6d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Under 76¢ 62¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$35 +144%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$18 +70%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$15 +60%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $51 +$31 +61%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$10 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 $0 -2%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$37 +150%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$16 -32%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $26 +$29 +113%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $24 +$26 +104%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $27 −$27 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 +$8 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $25 −$24 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 −$10 -40%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $25 +$75 +305%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$29 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 +$18 +70%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 +$50 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $25 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 75¢ $26 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 53¢ $16 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 6h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $25 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $0 10h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 10h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $2 10h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $3 10h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $2 10h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $18 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 10h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Wil BUY 27¢ $26 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 55¢ $25 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $35 31h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $6 32h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $3 32h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $10 32h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $1 32h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $5 33h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $25 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $51 38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $24 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $24 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.29 · official $20.30 (match) · 63 history records