Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
55 0x551b…2b38 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-6%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$53
world 12% −$27
sports 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.6% -10.1% 43% 43% +42.4%
≤30d 7 -0.6% -10.1% 43% 43% +42.4%
≤90d 9 -22.7% -30.1% 33% 33% +3.9%
all 9 -22.7% -30.1% 33% 33% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 33% +3.9%
10% -36.8% 33% -6.1%
15% -42.9% 33% -15.1%
20% -48.5% 33% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$8 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage78d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 +$33 +130%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 +$20 +73%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$15 +102%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 27 $27 −$27 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $59 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $59 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $27 15h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 30h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 30h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 31h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 31h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 58d
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 3¢ $9 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.96 · official $84.96 (match) · 21 history records