Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
55 0x551b…cf32 crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 381d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$238 (+3%) realized +$258 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%16W / 30L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$258
7 days+$256
14 days+$249
30 days+$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$4
world 28% −$2
other 16% −$9
tech 12% −$2
crypto 5% $0
sports 4% +$226
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +24.6% +12.7% 25% 12% -5.5%
≤30d 10 +11.2% +0.6% 30% 20% -5.6%
≤90d 15 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 13% -5.9%
all 46 +0.3% -9.3% 35% 4% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 4% -7.1%
10% -18.0% 2% -15.9%
15% -25.9% 2% -24.1%
20% -33.1% 2% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$1 · ×12.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.62 per $1 lost it wins $7.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

381d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$258
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses16 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage381d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Algeria 40¢ 34¢ $135 $115 −$20 (-15%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 23 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,117 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 23 $1,052 −$1 -0%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $133 +$262 +197%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 20? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? Jun 18 $811 $0 +0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 18 $822 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $23 +$4 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 30-April 5? May 21 $14 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on January 24? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $10 March 2-8? Mar 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 19? Jan 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Jan 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 26? Jan 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025 Dec 03 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will Derrick Henry win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Nov 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $260 October 13-19? Nov 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on October 18? Nov 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $37 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $5000 on September 1? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Sep 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.06 in July? Aug 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Carolina Tohá win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Jun 19 $295 $0 -0%
F1 season canceled or other team wins? Jun 19 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 19 $303 $0 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 10 $294 $0 -0%
Will Erling Haaland win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 10 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 07 $299 $0 -0%
Will Volt Netherlands win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parli Jun 07 $295 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 40¢ $137 1h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL No 99¢ $1,041 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 1h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 100¢ $1,042 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,109 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $263 1h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $788 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $1,052 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 5d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $774 5d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $775 5d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $778 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $822 5d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 33¢ $133 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $11 10d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 86¢ $23 14d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A BUY paiN 55¢ $16 33d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 76d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 76d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $25 84d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 30-April 5? BUY No 100¢ $14 84d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $10 84d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $15 84d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 102d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 102d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.57 · official $128.57 (match) · 118 history records