Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x551c…4576 crypto 56 markets active 6d ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$788 (-14%) realized −$788 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%31W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$288
14 days−$288
30 days−$1,027
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$985
other 2% +$5
sports 1% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -19.7% -27.3% 60% 43% -26.2%
≤30d 56 -22.3% -29.7% 55% 45% -26.4%
≤90d 56 -22.3% -29.7% 55% 45% -26.4%
all 56 -22.3% -29.7% 55% 45% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 45% -26.4%
10% -36.4% 27% -33.4%
15% -42.6% 14% -39.9%
20% -48.2% 5% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$80 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$788
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses31 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage14d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $98 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $98 +$74 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $94 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $34 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $90 +$40 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $80 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $55 +$24 +44%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $57 +$15 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $93 +$15 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $27 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $27 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $34 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $32 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$9 +41%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $28 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$5 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $111 −$105 -95%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 May 31 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 30 $37 +$15 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 30 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 30 $51 −$42 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 30 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 30 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 30 $224 −$224 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 30 $222 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 30 $368 +$60 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 30 $192 −$192 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 30 $207 +$160 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 30 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 30 $90 +$29 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 30 $71 +$18 +25%
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 30 $57 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 29 $303 +$53 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 29 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 29 $321 +$87 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 29 $157 +$164 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $98 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $74 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $172 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $98 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $55 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $54 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $45 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $45 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $41 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $40 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $34 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $34 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $32 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $130 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $90 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $90 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $80 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $80 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $55 6d
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream BUY New York Liberty 82¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $55 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $53 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $53 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $40 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records