Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:09:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

55
0x551e…87e1
crypto · 108 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$78 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$61 · open −$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$51
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses42 / 59
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)101 / 108
History coverage56d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 7 History 101 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$44
14 days−$53
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 88¢ 86¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 32¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-6%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 24¢ 6¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-73%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by June 30? Yes 59¢ 12¢ $12 $2 −$9 (-80%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County? Yes 32¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-97%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? No 61¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$5 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$11 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$7 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$16 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on I Jun 08 $21 −$10 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 06 $21 −$17 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $12 +$8 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 06 $15 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 06 $36 −$11 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 04 $16 +$2 +13%
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 04 $12 −$2 -20%
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 03 $50 −$3 -6%
Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch Jun 03 $8 −$3 -39%
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch Jun 03 $13 −$1 -8%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $35 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 03 $15 −$2 -13%
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Jun 03 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Jun 02 $39 −$3 -7%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 02 $14 −$1 -7%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 02 $15 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 02 $9 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $15 +$9 +57%
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will KaBuM! IDL win CD 2026 Split 1? Jun 01 $13 −$3 -24%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May? May 30 $24 −$4 -15%
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? May 29 $4 −$1 -25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? May 28 $48 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 28 $14 +$14 +100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May? May 28 $23 −$7 -28%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? May 27 $5 $0 -2%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary May 27 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 27 $16 +$12 +75%
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B? May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 27 $21 −$12 -58%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 27 $33 −$10 -29%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? May 27 $40 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $51 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 26 $15 +$3 +16%
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? May 25 $7 $0 -5%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by June 30? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $185B by June 30? May 23 $7 −$1 -13%
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.50 (LOW) by May 31, 2026? May 23 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 22 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 22 $15 −$14 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 56% +$7
other 16% −$44
tech 10% −$13
world 6% −$24
finance 6% −$2
politics 5% −$7
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 32¢ $11 19m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 88¢ $15 32m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 92¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $13 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 24¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $15 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 61¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $12 10h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $3 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -15.0% -23.1% 50% 36% -26.4%
≤30d 60 -5.5% -14.5% 35% 25% -14.3%
≤90d 101 -3.7% -12.9% 42% 36% -13.1%
all 101 -3.7% -12.9% 42% 36% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 36% -13.1%
10% -21.2% 31% -21.4%
15% -28.9% 26% -29.0%
20% -35.8% 20% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.61 · official $50.61 (match) · 350 history records