Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:21:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x551e…a42d other 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,403 (-7%) realized −$2,149 · open −$254
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate48%79W / 84L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$312
7 days−$1,002
14 days−$135
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 25% +$1,532
other 23% −$1,596
world 20% −$334
economics 15% −$1,761
crypto 8% +$464
finance 6% −$723
sports 4% −$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -27.6% -34.5% 43% 32% -29.5%
≤30d 87 -5.4% -14.4% 47% 38% -10.4%
≤90d 124 -15.4% -23.5% 42% 30% -20.9%
all 163 -8.2% -16.9% 48% 34% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 34% -15.7%
10% -24.9% 28% -23.7%
15% -32.1% 23% -31.1%
20% -38.8% 20% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$125 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$352
Realized−$2,149
Unrealized−$254
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses79 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)163 / 166
History coverage144d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 34¢ 16¢ $456 $210 −$247 (-54%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $282 +$232 +82%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $130 −$83 -63%
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? Jun 21 $15 −$3 -20%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $141 +$3 +2%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 21 $51 −$2 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? Jun 21 $34 −$5 -14%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $77 −$67 -87%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 21 $187 +$12 +6%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 21 $61 +$2 +4%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $315 −$309 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $186 +$113 +61%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$126 +124%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $141 −$140 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$72 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$80 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$99 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$48 -95%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $105 +$349 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$118 +114%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $247 +$91 +37%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $254 +$360 +142%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $199 +$81 +41%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$60 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $362 35m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $48 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 33¢ $48 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 2h
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $12 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $111 2h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $111 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $111 2h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 22¢ $33 2h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $49 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? SELL Yes 33¢ $30 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $130 2h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 4h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $52 4h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL No 58¢ $63 4h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $102 10h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 25h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $34 34h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $85 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.00 · official $352.00 (match) · 760 history records