Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:51:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5521…442a sports 443 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$627 (-9%) realized −$647 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%214W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$35
14 days−$37
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$458
other 18% −$258
crypto 14% $0
world 2% −$47
culture 1% +$2
politics 0% −$5
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -33.2% -39.6% 42% 33% -26.5%
≤30d 91 -5.5% -14.5% 44% 35% -18.2%
≤90d 423 -10.8% -19.3% 48% 41% -20.6%
all 437 -6.4% -15.3% 49% 43% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 43% -20.0%
10% -23.4% 36% -27.7%
15% -30.8% 29% -34.7%
20% -37.6% 25% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$647
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses214 / 223
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions6
Markets (closed)437 / 443
History coverage155d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 437 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $41 $65 +$24 (+60%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 92¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-42%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Jun 29 $43 −$7 -15%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 29 $15 +$5 +31%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $10 +$13 +129%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $44 +$9 +20%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $5 +$3 +58%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $23 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $25 −$24 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$23 +116%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $23 +$198 +864%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $23 −$23 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 −$24 -96%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $23 +$7 +28%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 12 $24 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? Jun 12 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 12 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 12 $24 +$1 +5%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $25 +$13 +51%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $19 −$18 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $16 −$16 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $17 −$16 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $15 −$15 -96%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $25 +$27 +111%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $23 −$23 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $16 −$16 -97%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 10 $37 −$36 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 09 $23 −$23 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 09 $23 −$23 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 09 $16 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $19 +$14 +73%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $19 +$14 +76%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $44 −$1 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $42 −$1 -1%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $23 −$22 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $23 −$22 -97%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $14 +$18 +129%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $25 −$24 -97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $23 +$22 +93%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 07 $29 +$7 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $36 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $41 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 24¢ $3 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $10 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 77¢ $10 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 45¢ $10 9h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Panama 45¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $53 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Panama 34¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Ghana 75¢ $15 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $43 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $43 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $44 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 10d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 47¢ $3 12d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 47¢ $3 12d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 58¢ $23 16d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 41¢ $21 16d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 23¢ $15 16d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 23¢ $25 16d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 30¢ $23 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.07 · official $120.84 (match) · 953 history records