Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5522…c807 sports 698 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,219 (-2%) realized −$4,311 · open +$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate75%508W / 170L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$358est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$3,457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,016
7 days−$6,544
14 days−$6,545
30 days−$4,614
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$156
other 31% −$4,489
tech 2% +$302
finance 0% −$7
world 0% −$7
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 -6.5% -15.4% 78% 34% -18.3%
≤30d 389 -6.7% -15.6% 76% 32% -13.2%
≤90d 678 -2.3% -11.6% 75% 35% -11.6%
all 678 -2.3% -11.6% 75% 35% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 35% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 18% -20.1%
15% -27.8% 11% -27.8%
20% -34.9% 7% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$118 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$3,457
Realized−$4,311
Unrealized+$92
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses508 / 170
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$358
Open positions20
Markets (closed)678 / 698
History coverage75d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 678 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Colombia 98¢ 99¢ $1,500 $1,515 +$15 (+1%)
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? No 91¢ 94¢ $500 $514 +$14 (+3%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 92¢ 92¢ $460 $462 +$2 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $312 $306 −$6 (-2%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 81¢ 94¢ $203 $235 +$32 (+15%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 76¢ 95¢ $152 $190 +$38 (+25%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 75¢ $62 $60 −$2 (-4%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 87¢ 82¢ $44 $41 −$2 (-6%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 90¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 86¢ 92¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Under 87¢ 93¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 87¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 38¢ 66¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+72%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30? No 92¢ 56¢ $9 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 86¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $32 −$11 -34%
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) Jun 18 $28 +$2 +8%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $190 +$10 +5%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $91 +$9 +10%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $388 +$12 +3%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $583 +$17 +3%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,069 +$31 +3%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $13 +$2 +12%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $81 +$2 +3%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $220 +$10 +5%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,449 +$1,406 +97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $484 +$156 +32%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $600 +$12 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $184 +$15 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,921 −$1,437 -75%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $23 −$10 -43%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,250 +$124 +10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $33 +$17 +51%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 +$13 +17%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $903 +$97 +11%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 17 $785 +$22 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $683 +$67 +10%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $18 +$2 +13%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$10 +24%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $970 +$40 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $196 +$4 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $962 +$38 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $9 +$1 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $28 +$2 +8%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $18 +$2 +12%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$1 -8%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 17 $95 +$5 +5%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,456 +$44 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $65 +$5 +7%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $280 +$20 +7%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $28 +$3 +9%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +28%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $382 +$18 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $461 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $147 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $147 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 86¢ $20 1h
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? BUY No 91¢ $501 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $20 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $40 1h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Colombia 98¢ $1,501 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 89¢ $13 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $196 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $32 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $49 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $981 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $17 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $583 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 91¢ $91 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $4 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $3 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $75 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $6 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $3 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $3 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $388 2h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 95¢ $190 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 60¢ $12 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,457.29 · official $3,457.29 (match) · 2455 history records