Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5522…7695 weather 783 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,026 (-4%) realized −$987 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%239W / 528L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$130est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$145
7 days+$472
14 days+$472
30 days+$474
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$661
other 21% −$241
crypto 4% +$2
weather 3% −$66
finance 3% +$6
politics 1% −$101
culture 1% −$33
tech 0% −$37
world 0% −$14
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +6.3% -3.8% 54% 48% +8.0%
≤30d 71 +7.3% -2.9% 55% 46% +5.9%
≤90d 668 -15.8% -23.9% 23% 20% -23.7%
all 767 +7.6% -2.7% 31% 28% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 28% -13.7%
10% -12.0% 25% -22.0%
15% -20.5% 21% -29.5%
20% -28.3% 19% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +57% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$17 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$504
Realized−$987
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses239 / 528
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions18
Markets (closed)767 / 783
History coverage236d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 767 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 53¢ 54¢ $162 $163 +$2 (+1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $76 $72 −$3 (-4%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 49¢ 38¢ $74 $56 −$17 (-23%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? No 91¢ 90¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? No 86¢ 86¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 84¢ 53¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-37%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? No 80¢ 80¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? No 64¢ 64¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? No 59¢ 58¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score No 55¢ 55¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score No 43¢ 42¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 42¢ 42¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 36¢ 36¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 38¢ 36¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
2026 Balance of Power: Other Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Will Solana reach $400 by December 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+392%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 12 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$10 +86%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $12 +$9 +73%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $36 +$5 +13%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $63 +$48 +76%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $82 +$23 +27%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 20 $38 +$2 +6%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $12 +$10 +79%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $13 +$9 +67%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $14 +$6 +42%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 +$6 +40%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11 +$10 +97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $35 +$6 +17%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $39 +$2 +5%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $8 +$14 +172%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $18 +$3 +16%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $11 +$11 +101%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $12 −$11 -99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $35 +$6 +17%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $35 +$6 +16%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 +$66 +1290%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $35 +$6 +16%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$11 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 +$10 +83%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $77 +$34 +44%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $196 +$14 +7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $29 +$73 +250%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 +$5 +144%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $18 +$33 +180%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $185 +$25 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 34¢ $100 47m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 91¢ $37 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $9 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $8 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $9 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY No 64¢ $13 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $17 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY No 86¢ $35 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $12 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $12 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 36¢ $8 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $13 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 38¢ $8 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $187 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 53¢ $164 7h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 94¢ $38 23h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $12 23h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $13 23h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 70¢ $14 23h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $13 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $9 23h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 88¢ $36 23h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $11 23h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $12 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 53¢ $11 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $13 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $18 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $8 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $503.86 · official $503.88 (match) · 2101 history records