Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5523…b80e crypto 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$592 (-10%) realized −$592 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%129W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$330
7 days−$384
14 days−$398
30 days−$374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$716
sports 48% −$69
other 3% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -20.4% -27.9% 53% 37% -26.3%
≤30d 129 -5.6% -14.6% 57% 40% -23.4%
≤90d 231 -5.5% -14.5% 56% 44% -21.1%
all 231 -5.5% -14.5% 56% 44% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 44% -21.1%
10% -22.7% 32% -28.7%
15% -30.1% 30% -35.6%
20% -37.0% 27% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$17 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$592
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses129 / 102
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)231 / 236
History coverage62d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 231 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$9 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $61 −$16 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $127 −$126 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$18 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $35 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $70 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$4 +12%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $46 +$21 +46%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$13 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $90 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$8 +146%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $73 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 16 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $16 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 731 history records